It’s 49-37 Smith in SUSA’s first poll of the Oregon Senate race.
Gordon Smith leads among women 48-39, peels off 28% of Democrats, and wins 18-34 year-olds, 53-29%. Sample is 100% white, and breaks down 41D-37R-21R. Smith even leads in the Portland region.
This was taken just before Smith’s latest attack ads, and there are serious questions about Merkely’s financial ability to fight back. So is this another screwy SUSA poll, or can this one be written off?
On it being a screwy poll.
I think there has been a lot of heavy drinking going on at SUSA lately with these kinds of cross-tabs. Those young kids under 30 just can’t get enough Gordo. That’s Gordo’s best demographic age-wise according to this poll.
looks very weird.
This race should absolutely not be written off, especially since Smith will get no top of the ticket help. McCain has written off Oregon.
partisan breakdown s/b 41D-37R-21I.
I do think Obama will do well in Oregon, but I’m wondering about Merkeley’s ability to counter the negative barrage that’s starting to come from Gordeon Smith.
SUSA is a great pollster. Last year their results were right on the money. Should be a larger than 41% Democrat, and the number of Republicans is definittely less the 37%, but still about right, Smith is performing weakly, Merkely just hasn’t put it in the bag.